Beta Blocker

Good piece by Bill Gross. You gotta trust something like this when the conclusions essentially state that you should NOT buy his main product, PIMCO Total Return.

1) Why is our credit market running out of heat or fuel?

a) As it expands at a rate of trillions per year, real growth in the economy has failed to respond. More credit goes to pay interest than future investment.

b) Zero-based interest rates, which are the result of QE and credit creation, have negative as well as positive effects. Historic business models may be negatively affected and investment spending may be dampened.

c)  Look to the Japanese historical example.

2) What options should an investor consider?

a) Seek inflation protection in credit market assets/ shorten durations.

b) Increase real assets/commodities/stable cash flow equities at the margin.

c) Accept lower future returns in portfolio planning.

For a decent safe-park-your-cash security, check out $AUNZ. It focuses on short-term high-grad Australian and New Zealand credit. And, it actually gets a yield. 

And here is the actual Bill Gross monthly news letter.

First off, I’d like to say that, as smart as Gross is, he builds up a bit of a straw man. He claims that, if the US economy has grown at 3% a year, and if stocks have returned an annualized 6%, then we must be skimming an extra 3% off the top. This is somewhat faulty logic. The 3% is merely an average growth rate of all companies, while the 6% is likely derived from some sort of index comprised of publicly traded companies. What’s more, shitty companies usually don’t make the index.

That being said, Gross is mostly right. Just because we have experienced rapid growth in the past does not mean that we will continue to do so. The next 100 years might not be as bearish as Gross predicts, but they may not be as bullish as the past would suggest, either. 

Although picking a few individual stocks might still be a good way to generate alpha, a broad, diversified index might not be the objectively best choice you can make.