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Cheapest ETFs by category

Thu, 02 May 2013 12:40:30 -0400

Cheapest ETFs by category:

Most expensive category: Industrial Metals (cheapest ETF — 65bps)

Least expensive category: All Cap Equity (cheapest ETF — 4bps)

The big happy chart of currency regimes

Wed, 10 Apr 2013 13:12:29 -0400

The big happy chart of currency regimes

Monetary systems, debt, and Bitcoin

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 10:21:41 -0400

Monetary systems, debt, and Bitcoin:

As BTC breaks $100 (USD), people are suddenly interested in it again.

Lots of cool charts and graphs from JP Morgan

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:57:16 -0400

Lots of cool charts and graphs from JP Morgan:

Emerging markets, and interest rates, and and asset-allocation returns, oh my!

Man IPOs himself, falls victim to shareprice manipulation, corporate takeover attempts, etc.

Fri, 29 Mar 2013 14:40:47 -0400

Man IPOs himself, falls victim to shareprice manipulation, corporate takeover attempts, etc.:

This guy is an idiot. But still, it’s a fascinating idea. Some guy on an airplane told me about a book called The Unincorporated Man.

It seems like something like this might work if the guy didn’t give his shareholders say over every little decision. You didn’t see Steve Jobs asking for shareholder approval of every little Apple project. In fact, part of the appeal of the company came in its mystery.

Well, scratch my plans to become a financial adviser, paralegal, or librarian.

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 10:52:10 -0400

Well, scratch my plans to become a financial adviser, paralegal, or librarian.:

Barring a civilization-ending event, technology is not going to move backward. More and more of our world will be controlled by software. It’s already become so ubiquitous that, argues one of my colleagues, it’s now ridiculous to call some firms as “tech” companies when all companies depend on it so much.

So how do we deal with this trend? The possible solutions to the problems of disruption by thinking machines are beyond the scope of this piece. As I’ve mentioned in other pieces published at Quartz, there are plenty of optimists ready to declare that the rise of the machines will ultimately enable higher standards of living, or at least forms of unemployment as foreign to us as “big data scientist” would be to a scribe of the 17th century.

But that’s only as long as you’re one of the ones telling machines what to do, not being told by them. And that will require self-teaching, creativity, entrepreneurialism and other traits that may or may not be latent in children, as well as retraining adults who aspire to middle class living. For now, sadly, your safest bet is to be a technologist and/or own capital, and use all this automation to grab a bigger-than-ever share of a pie that continues to expand.

A Bio-physical interpretaiton of the small-cap premium

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 12:08:08 -0400

A Bio-physical interpretaiton of the small-cap premium:

Are small-cap premiums justified? Maybe. Large companies are fragile. Large cities are antifragile.

Moleskin notebooks headed for an IPO

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 11:50:45 -0400

Moleskin notebooks headed for an IPO:

So THAT’s why they’re so expensive: 40% profit margins.

On one hand, it’s hard to see a physical notebook company really taking off in a digital economy. On the other hand, this is one of the best physical media companies around. The article (and the moleskin filing) are 100% correct in identifying their market. They aren’t selling notebooks…they’re selling people an identity.

If anything, the digital age can probably help them through more effective advertising. Social media and digital marketing are specifically geared towards selling niche products like this.

The article estimates that the company likely has a global audience of about 300 million, and is selling products to 1.5% of them. It wouldn’t shock me to see that 300 million number fall drastically in the future, but also see them sell to a much larger percentage of it.

It’s slated to IPO at a P/E of between 22 and 29. Might be a good long-term play if they can get their digital marketing act together.

The ultimatum game is NOT consistent across cultures

Sat, 23 Mar 2013 10:41:48 -0400

The ultimatum game is NOT consistent across cultures:

Very interesting. I was under the impression that most games, either ended in a near-50-50 split, or one party rejected the offer. But apparently (and this shows how behind I am on the literature) some 1995 study offers conflicting evidence, and several follow-up studies offer more conflicting evidence.

Can’t say I’m entirely surprised. The more I learn about the brain, the more I realize how plastic it is. I always wondered what would happen if they tried to pull some of those behavioral finance tests on seasoned trading and investing pros.

In any case, I’m sure the article’s conclusion would make even David Graeber proud:

“
Because Machiguengan culture had a different history, their gut feeling about what was fair was distinctly their own. In the small-scale societies with a strong culture of gift-giving, yet another conception of fairness prevailed. There, generous financial offers were turned down because people’s minds had been shaped by a cultural norm that taught them that the acceptance of generous gifts brought burdensome obligations. Our economies hadn’t been shaped by our sense of fairness; it was the other way around.”

Investing in motifs

Fri, 22 Mar 2013 14:40:03 -0400

Investing in motifs:

Good website for idea generation.

Banks bank on climate change

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 16:00:00 -0500

Banks bank on climate change:

Screw investing in green energy. Let’s just invest in stuff that will appreciate in value when the negative effects of climate change hit.

Hardware start-ups invade SXSW

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 15:58:26 -0500

Hardware start-ups invade SXSW

Top mobile operating systems world wide

Wed, 06 Mar 2013 23:26:43 -0500

Top mobile operating systems world wide

Is Google Glass a bad idea?

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 14:49:57 -0500

Is Google Glass a bad idea?:

Probably….But it’ll be so fucking cool!

I’ve shared man thoughts with this article. If you think Google has too much information now (all your search history, your decoded genome), Glass will be a fucking nightmare. How do you feel about the possibility of all your friends recording you without your permission?

So, about that other continent... (not Antarctica)

Sat, 02 Mar 2013 11:08:13 -0500

So, about that other continent... (not Antarctica):

Great article by The Economist, noting that Africans are finally getting their shit together.

This is a pretty good point in their history for several reasons. First (my take) is that the pseudo-socialist after-effects of western imperialism are finally beginning to fade. This has little to do with economics: it probably has more to do with a full political cycle passing. A lot of these countries went from what was essentially a dictatorship to a political shit show of nationalism and socialism. The cold war may have ended 24 years ago for the rest of the world, but Africa may have taken longer due to its being somewhat disconnected from the rest of the world.

I also find it interesting (also my own take) that the global recession of the last five years has probably helped out Africa more than anything else. What better time to grow when global interest rates are near zero?

In any case, another thing the article highlights is the wide-scale adoption of smartphones and other 21-century communication technology. When all those armchair academic anthropologists talk about the democracy of the internet, THIS is what they are talking about. It would be really interesting to see an entire generation adopt this technology without the baggage of Western cultural preconceived notions of how this technology should be used.

To be sure, there is still plenty of shit standing in their way. It sounds like their infrastructure sucks, climate change will likely harm them more than any other society, and many countries still face heft political road blocks to getting anything productive accomplished.

On the this week's VIX spike

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 11:48:18 -0500

On the this week's VIX spike:

A little wonky, but very interesting

Yadda yadda yadda... fiscal cliff something or other

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 11:47:22 -0500

Yadda yadda yadda... fiscal cliff something or other:

Sequestration is a much less threatening name.

Do you like risk? Then check out these funds!

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 12:23:35 -0500

Do you like risk? Then check out these funds!:

So, you’ve slaved away at a miserable job for 40 years, each day more excruciating than the last. The one beacon of hope pulling you out of bed in the morning: the prospect of starting day 1 of retirement with a tidy sum of capital, and earning a cool 5% in low-risk income. Then 2008 comes along. About two months of pondering after a fevered conversation with your step-aunt at that year’s Thanksgiving, you decide to sell out of the market. After all, who would buy stocks in this market? Now, after five years of sitting on the sidelines, the Fed has lowered interest rates to near-zero. Your income generating prospects are nil, and, to top it off, you have to worry about inflation a little farther down the line. Time to break out the shotgun, right?

Not so fast. There are still plenty of ways to roll the dice on your retirement.

Numero Uno indicator of future currency wars: G20 countries pledge to not engage in currency wars

Sat, 16 Feb 2013 13:40:22 -0500

Numero Uno indicator of future currency wars: G20 countries pledge to not engage in currency wars:

No comment.

7 Habits of highly effective mediocre people

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 11:28:55 -0500

7 Habits of highly effective mediocre people:

Learn to procrastinate
Learn to single-task/zero-task
Learn to fail
Learn to steal other people’s ideas
Learn to not network as much
Learn to be a shitty negotiator
Learn to be a poor judge of character